Financial Crisis is 'structural adjustment" for 1st world nations

Is the global economic crisis a manufactured opportunity for a "structural adjustment" of 1st world nations? Asere at Malcolm X Grassroots Movement (MXGM) explores the economic and human rights consequences in an essay entitled "The Hold Up."

Now that the financial bubble created by the big banks and Wall Street has burst, leaving people confused and disoriented from the shock, the "cartels" have succeeded in shifting the responsibility and consequences to taxpayers, nationalizing their debt/risk through passage of the unpopular 800 Billion bailout known as the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.

The big banks and investment companies created the financial crisis when they began the criminal practice of valuing debt/risk as assets and selling the bundled debt as "securities" to global investors. The current seismic financial shift will maneuver the affected communities closer to the financial condition of the world's poor majority, lowering their standard of living. The cycle of debt, dependency and indentured servitude is keeping the world enslaved to the global banking system (IMF, World Bank) that takes its orders from Washington and the other nations of the G7.

Many in the global north (North America, Europe, Scandinavia...etc) have no real concept of the conditions that exist in the global south, in the slums of Haiti, India, Philippines, Indonesia, Latin America, Africa... etc. Now the global North are realizing that they too are at the mercy of the policy makers who, aligned with the richest 1 percent are "centralizing" the global economy, consolidating economic power and redistributing the wealth. In the U.S. the target is the working class gains made during the decade following the October 1929 stock market crash; such as the social security act, the minimum wage, unions (National Labor Relations Act of 1935) and the 40 hour work week. "Today all these social and economic gains are under attack."¹ So structural adjustment has come to the the U.S. and the global north.

Structural adjustment has been a part of U.S. policy in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa and other "developing countries" since the 1950s. In Haiti the Clinton administration demanded as a condition of restoring Aristide to power (after a U.S. supported military coup) the implementation of a structural adjustment program -- to the detriment of the Haitian people.

For decades, two sometimes divergent, sometimes convergent streams of U.S. policy have played an influential role in defining the economic and political system of Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. Economic policy has steadily supported the interests of U.S. investors and exporters. U.S. political interests in Haiti have been less unified, careening between support for democracy and development and traditional U.S. collusion with the elites and the military. Too often, the interests of the Haitian people, who live in the poorest country in the Western hemisphere, have been sacrificed for the imperatives of Washington policymakers.

U.S. Policy in Haiti by Lisa A. McGowan

The failure of U.S. foreign policy is evidenced by the global financial crisis. And the feeding frenzy of these "gangstas" on the developing world's resources could not be stopped at America's shores. The U.S. controlled global banking system is now feeding on U.S. communities. The U.S. is in the process of becoming the "banana republic" that it has so long ridiculed in "developing countries," while supporting fostering the cruel system through its promotion of structural adjustment programs.

"The greatness of a nation is not measured by the height of its buildings or its steel output or its military might but by these three factors:

1. the rights and opportunities it extends all its citizens, especially the lowliest

2. the manner in which it absorbs and responds to the criticism of its citizenry and the world

3. the willingness and ability of its citizens to question and actively resist the propaganda of that nation's elites ... "

More of the essay here. at Charles Hugh Smith's website

Further info:
¹History shows potential for mass struggle by Milt Neidenberg
The Shock Doctrine - Naomi Klein
Dismantling the American Dream - by Kenneth Buchdahl
Life And Debt (2001) - Documentary directed by Stephanie Black

Jdimytai Damour - Haitian Immigrant: Death by Shopping

I learned today that the Walmart employee killed on "Black" Friday was 34 year old Haitian immigrant Jdimytai Damour. People are saying that consumerism killed Mr. Damour. I believe that greed, violence and indifferent callousness killed him. There is a distressing lack of respect for human life in general and People of Color in particular. People must realize the violence that they are exposed to in movies, in war and in everyday life affects the psyche negatively, makes them less sensitive to other's pain. He was just a temp worker who was most likely sending money to his Mom, brother and four sisters in Haiti. His father, a Queens bus driver from Fresh Meadows. Could not make any sense of it all. "I don't know what happened to him. He's gone. Only God knows what happened to him," said his father, Ogera Charles.

Jdimytai was a big man (6.5"-270 lbs.) who had worked in construction, but when the doors of the store came down on him and the crowd stampeded over him to get to the flat-screen TVs, video games and other consumer products, he was helpless. He loved poetry, but his words could not be heard above the roar of the crowd; they were oblivious to his pain.

His favorite writer was the late novelist Donald Goines, a Detroit native who was under-aged when he enlisted in the U.S. Air Force. He also served in the army from 1952-55 during which he became hooked on heroin.

"Goines's style is unpolished, his language is a combination of Black English and rough American Standard English. His characters are likewise unpolished - pimps, prostitutes, thieves, hit men, dope addicts. They are people whose survival struggle in ghettos the author knew best. It has been easy for his readers, who have seen drug addicts and violence on the streets, to relate and identify with this [sic] stories. Also [sic] his style has been praised - "is [sic] so clear, its like you are apart [sic] of the story", "you can almost see the characters as you read the book," have [sic] Goines's fans said."

www.kirjasto.sci.fi

Mr. Goines was a lifelong heroin addict. He and his wife died on the night of October 21, 1974 during "a failed drug deal". His assailants were never found. He published all his works in a period of four years. The first two while in jail. Would that someone had treated his addiction, instead of incarcerating him, maybe he would still be alive. Perhaps even the army had a responsibility for taking care of its veterans returning from war sick from addiction and post-traumatic stress disorder. Does the government bear some of the responsibility for Mr. Goines spiraling out of control and his eventual violent death?

Like Jdimytai Damour, Donald Goines died young. He was only 37 years old. So tell me, which is more violent, the streets of Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince or the front lines on Black Friday at Walmart in Valley Stream? Surely, MINUSTA could easily be given a mandate to come patrol the aisles of Walmart, the streets of Detroit, New York, Los Angeles, Newark... to restore stability and security.

Chavez on Fronline of Global Change

A global change agenda that gives voice to the poor and dispossessed continues to be spearheaded by Hugo Chavez of Venezuela.

You would not be able to gather that if you watch the Frontline documentary about Hugo Chavez called ""The Hugo Chavez Show" which aired on PBS this week. It claimed to present "An illuminating inside view of the mercurial Venezuelan president, his rise to power, and the new kind of revolution that he seems to be inventing -- on television."

I was surprised by some of the information. Like about the oil magnate that came to the rescue of the Chavez government during a paralyzing strike staged by workers on December 2, 2003 at the national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). This so-called "worker's strike" was actually called by the opposition after the Chavez government called for an increase in the government's share from oil profits in order to fund social programs. Venezuela is the world's fifth largest oil producer and ranks among the top four U.S. oil suppliers. The strike cut total oil imports to the U.S. by 14%.

I was not surprised by the criticism of Chavez's programs or the adversarial tone of the piece, which held out little hope for the success of the Bolivarian Revolution movement. This piece was the usual U.S. mainstream media propaganda. The role of the U.S. in the attempted coup by the Venezuelan opposition in 2002 for instance, is just a short aside that avoided mentioning the extent of U.S. involvement. The piece implies that Chavez is "obsessed" with Bush, in that he falsely attributes an imperialistic and interventionist agenda to the U.S. However, the U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice has made many statements branding Hugo Chavez a threat to hemispheric stability and implied that he must be stopped. Just this September, the U.S. ambassador was expelled by the Venezuelan government for his role in an attempted coup. No mention of this was made on the program.

One positive is that the piece acknowledges that Hugo Chavez has been a voice for the poor indigenous people of South America, that he has put their needs on the agenda whenever there is a legitimate discussion of the political priorities of the Latin American nations. This is a significant and very important change.

Hugo Chavez is well on his way to affecting real change in South America because he has eschewed the mindset that allows extreme poverty to exist in the same space as extreme wealth. Leaders of Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay officially launched the South American Bank in Buenos Aires in December 2007 to challenge the world banking system of debt and dependency which is controlled by capitalist bureaucrats at the IMF and the World Bank. The global economic crisis resulting from the U.S. economic collapse serves to confirm the need for such an alliance.

Hugo Chavez's ideals are a positive change for the poor people of Venezuela and the world. They are in the majority. The rich who enjoy most of the world's resources compromise a very small minority. The documentary's narrow exploration does not reflect the Herculean proportions of his struggle, nor credit him primarily for the global seismic shift left that has occurred in the political, social and economic life of Latin America and the world.

"The Hugo Chavez Show" producer Ofra Bikel should know that even though the revolution is televised, it is also bringing about positive change to Latin America and the world.

Haitian Mom Loses Son in Iraq & Faces Losing Her Home

Jocelyn Voltaire of Queens, New York lost her oldest son in Iraq. An auction is scheduled for today October 17 to sell her foreclosed home. Activist and bloggers are trying to save her home. Jocelyn Voltaire had a mortgage of $800 a month before she fell victim to predatory lenders. Her mortgage jumped to over $2000 a month. American News Project (ANP) is reporting that:

"Jocelyn fell victim to a predatory loan that ANP has traced back to Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street firm whose CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, made over $70 million last year.

Code Pink the anti-war activists are raising funds to help Jocelyn. You can go to CODEPINK’s website at codepink4peace.org for more information.

WATCH THE VIDEO

Say, Isn't It Schmo?

In post-debate analysis of the finances of Joe the Plumber--it turns out Joe the Plumber's hypothetical small business will not pay more taxes with Obama's economic plan. Joe is not falling for that. His feeling: show me the money. Wall Street meltdown be damned, Joe the Plumber is his own man, he wants to handle his social security money himself. John McCain's surprise when Obama said that Joe the Plumber would pay zero penalty for not providing insurance to his would be employees was supposed to be mocking, but McCain just looked nonplussed instead. The debate was won by Obama according to the polls, so McCain's mugging throughout the debate must have turned quite a few people off.

In my favorite moment, McCain, in answering a question about "Free" Trade, accused Obama of "not understanding" that signing the Columbia Free Trade agreement was a "no brainer." I thoroughly enjoyed Obama's response. He said he was concerned about the worker's human rights. Workers, he said, are being targeted and murdered for standing up to management. This is a new mindset for an American presidential candidate... expressing concern for worker's rights outside of the U.S.! It was a nice comment for the folks in Columbia to hear. I listened to "First Voices Indigenous Radio" this morning and a Columbian spoke to Obama's comment and expressed gratitude for the positive support. Columbians are being terrorized right now for standing up for their indigenous rights.

John McCain's theatrics in naming Bill Ayers and questioning Obama's association was a moot point given that McCain preceded his statement with the comment that he didn't "care about an old, washed-up terrorist." This so reminded me of George W. Bush saying that Iraq had "nothing" to do with 9/11--surprising to some since Bush had accused Iraq of aiding in the attacks therefore justifying an invasion of Iraq.

How do you become "an old, washed-up terrorist"? I guess that's why Bush doesn't think about Bin Laden.

Hat tip to Angry Asian Man

US "Tapeworm" Economics Causes World Financial Crisis

A pre- 850 billion bailout analysis of the American economic system written in February 2007 makes the point that we will change nothing unless we "change the way money works in our personal lives, our communities, and our world." The author Carolyn Baker credits Catherine Austin Fitts as the one person "on earth who has... clearly articulated the way sustainable and unsustainable economic systems work." Ms. Baker teaches history to college students and has written several books. She believes that US presidents have little influence and control over the American economic system, which she terms the "neo-liberal tapeworm" that feeds on its host (the U.S. citizen) and the world.

Naomi Klein, who wrote the book "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism." thinks that the current economic crisis and bail out is the "shock" that will prevent a president Obama from instituting the changes that his campaign is promoting; such as new sources of sustainable energy, universal healthcare, an overhaul of the education system and middle class tax relief.

"Tapeworm” is the name Fitts applies to the economic system of the U.S. which seeks to feed upon both its inhabitants and its neighbors, near and far, and at the same time, ingest them with toxins which cause them to crave the very elements which feed the Tapeworm, thereby establishing a perpetual search-and-destroy economic system. Inherent in Tapeworm economics is the primacy of centralized financial systems such as the Federal Reserve, national and worldwide banking networks, a complex global economic apparatus, reliance on agribusiness for food supply and distribution, and the privatization of resources—all without financial transparency or accountability.

Conversely, a sustainable economy is de-centralized and locally-focused, relying on small, well-managed local banks; food supplies which are grown, financed, and distributed locally; community ownership of land and resources; local commerce and industry; and above all, financial transparency.

Among the myriad advantages of categorizing economic systems in this way is the immediate exposure of federal election campaigns as unequivocally by, for, and about centralized financial systems which offer the illusions of “choice” and “change”.

No sincere proponent of a sustainable economy has the slightest possibility of emerging victorious in a country where centralized financial systems furnish, finance, and in the current milieu, manage electoral outcomes. Or as Aaron Russo’s documentary “America From Freedom To Fascism” underscored, voting in a national election is essentially making a choice between two crime families who are ostensibly at war with each other but will always join forces when their mutual interests are threatened.

Barack Obama has taken an active part in supporting the unpopular bailout of Wall Street to the tune of $850 billion dollars, so it should come as no surprise that the very same Wall Street firms to benefit from the bailout are the top five funders of the Obama campaign. OpenSecrets.org lists the top five Obama contributors as Merrill Lynch, Citigroup Inc, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The organizations themselves did not donate , rather the money came from the organization's PAC, its individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates. The same top five contributors are listed for Senator John McCain.

Unfortunately, the bailout did not include measures to help middle class Americans; such as a moratorium on foreclosures, mortgage relief and restructuring and bankruptcy relief. The U.S. government is complicit in giving Treasury Secretary Paulson and his cronies on Wall Street a blank check and very little transparency and oversight to stop them from further theft and mismanagement. The very people who have exploited the system have been rewarded and are set to use this bailout as a windfall that will cover more risky investments and their assets.

The Baker article maintains:

If we attentively read United States history, we learn that particularly in recent times, financial systems, not presidents, dictate policy and that “Chief Executives” are themselves at the mercy of those systems--before, during, and after their term of office. Electing presidents changes little, but changing how money works changes everything.

Indigenous People Respond to the World Financial Crisis
An article in the Mohawk Nation News uses the parasite analogy to describe the U.S. economic system and its precipitous collapse, suggesting the necessity for revolutionary change:

"The public is crying out for major change to end the colonial racist greedy system. They have to look at Indigenous culture and harmonize their society with ours to survive. They need to renew all their arrangements with us to live, think and govern themselves so that the parasites are pushed aside. Sacrifices are necessary or humanity will destroy itself.

There is another world, a world of resistance. Our fate rests in our own humble hands. Indigenous people have survived. We kept our philosophy, our notions of governance, our duties to mother earth and our way of life which was terribly damaged. We have been able to resuscitate it and bring it back to a healthy life. We all have our strengths. We have an enormous evolved consciousness. People are beginning to see through this capitalist fraud.

Do U.S. President George Bush, Republican candidate John McCain and Democratic candidate Barack Obama want to really re-arrange the economy and society on a new basis? Do they want to dig up the roots of the colonial past and harmonize relations with the Indigenous people and mother earth?"

Ms. Baker writes that the "neoliberal tapeworm" is also being rejected in Latin America in countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Nicaragua for more sustainable economic systems. In Brazil, Senator Eduardo Matarazzo Suplicy sponsored "Citizen's Basic Income" legislation. In their book "The Ethics And Economics of the Basic Income Guarantee", Karl Widerquist and Michael Anthony describe Brazil's basic income law. A citizen in Brazil has the right to a basic income and to contribute to that developing nation building "a just and civilized society." Interestingly, in the U.S., Alaska has a guaranteed income in the form of the "Alaska Permanent Fund" which provides a guaranteed income to all of Alaska's citizens. This economic instrument is also being introduced in Iraq as an oil shares "dividend" to be distributed to Iraq's citizens.

Ms. Baker theorizes that an economic transformation must take place in the United States in order for humankind and the ecosystems to survive beyond the age of oil

"It first begins with a commitment to financial literacy in concert with sustainable economics.

Next, one must increase one’s learning curve regarding the reality of corruption in the United States. American “exceptionalism”, the puerile illusion that other countries are corrupt, but the U.S. is not, must be shattered...

As a result of this recognition, it then becomes crucial to illuminate corruption and Tapeworm economics in one’s own community, i.e., narcotics trafficking, fraud, entities such as universities, foundations, churches, non-profit agencies, and media that accept contributions from the Tapeworm and serve its interests...

...we have no business depositing our money in Tapeworm banks or using credit cards from those institutions. It is our responsibility to transact with institutions that keep the money in our communities, rather than drain it out...

Understand that personal debt finances the Tapeworm and ensures its continued success. Get out of debt, and if you must use credit cards at all, pay them off in full monthly... Investigate people-to-people lending arrangements such as those found at www.prosper.com.

Become involved with other activists in your community to block the privatization of land and resources and demand public ownership of them.

Recognize that “socially responsible investing” usually isn’t. Consult the Solari website for investment opportunities that genuinely promote sustainability while bringing an optimum return.

Consider investing in precious metals—silver or gold, and consult the Solari site for ways to begin doing so with small, affordable amounts. If you deposit money in a savings account, why not invest some of it in precious metals instead?

If we attentively read United States history, we learn that particularly in recent times, financial systems, not presidents, dictate policy and that “Chief Executives” are themselves at the mercy of those systems--before, during, and after their term of office. Electing presidents changes little, but changing how money works changes everything.

Update 10.22.08
I have the wrong link for Barack Obama's top contributors. Obama's top contributors are here. I mistakenly have John McCain's top campaign contributors instead. I regret the error.

Bush Honchos Nationalize Private Mortgage Businesses

The US State Department and its surrogates go around the world monitoring the economies and policies of governments in order to see to it that industries are privatized and opened up to "free trade" mandates dictated by multinational corporations. However, in a move designed to get a handle on the slumping housing market, the US government has taken over the mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The Bush administration has been careful not to use the word, but its takeover amounts to “nationalizing” the two privately held businesses.

AFL-CIO chief economist Ron Blackwell says [watch video, below], "Housing prices are falling faster presently than during the Great Depression. This is very serious."



Don't expect US government funded groups like the International Crisis Group (ICG) (a "bevy of detached "intellectuals" that seems to think that they need to hold forth on all world issues") to report on the Bush administration's hypocrisy on the issue of privatization. Their report's "findings" are geared towards coinciding with the goals of the US State Department. And privatization (i.e. "making the world safe for American corporations") is a goal that is often at the bottom of US interventions into the sovereign politics of nations like Venezuela and Haiti.

VENEZUELA

"Large social service programs, termed “missions”, have been launched in poor neighbourhoods and helped gain popular support for the government. State control of the economy, not just the vital oil sector, has increased, as has pressure on opposition media and NGOs".

The report concludes:
...increase efforts to improve the medium to long-term sustainability of social and infrastructure programs by attacking inflation and fiscal deficits and avoiding excessive state control of the economy...

Venezuela: Hugo Chávez’s Revolution
ICG Report: Latin America Report N°19 (02.22.08)

HAITI

"He [Aristide] offered an explanation rarely heard in discussions of Haitian politics--actually, he offered three: "privatization, privatization and privatization."

"...Washington's negotiators made one demand that Aristide could not accept: the immediate sell-off of Haiti's state-owned enterprises, including phones and electricity. Aristide argued that unregulated privatization would transform state monopolies into private oligarchies, increasing the riches of Haiti's elite and stripping the poor of their national wealth.."

Aristide in Exile by Naomi Klein
The Nation (07.14.2005)

At the risk of sounding sanctimonious; the US must avoid "excessive state control," If allowed to "nationalize" industries, the US faces an increased risk of conflict. We must all work to "PREVENT CONFLICT WORLDWIDE." Even if we first have to see to it that preferred "opposition groups" are well-funded, represented and ready to step in and achieve "freedom" and "democracy."

US Accused of Human Rights Violations in Haiti

The US denies that it meddles in Haitian politics. I have heard a US Embassy official state emphatically that holding the purse strings gives the US no influence in Haitian affairs. The article below from the Daily News Egypt points out what a bold-faced lie this line of propaganda is. It is a fact that this was the tactic used to undermine and oust Haiti's first democratically elected government. The US pursued its imperialistic goals in total disregard of the toll in human misery and suffering.

The human rights of Haitians are violated daily by the international community. In particular, the US has contributed to the underdevelopment of Haiti and the suffering of its people. To date Haiti's infrastructure is in shambles, no running water, electricity, no garbage collection, impassable roads and toxic water.

"The IDB [Inter-American Development Bank], the world's largest regional development bank, works in Latin America and the Caribbean purportedly to “contribute to the acceleration of economic and social development.” Its actions in Haiti, however, have severely undermined those goals.

Roughly $54 million in IDB loans for water infrastructure in Haiti, home to literally the world’s worst water, offered a proven path to preventing deadly water-borne diseases. Designed to assist in fulfilling the right to water in the most impoverished nation in the Western Hemisphere, these loans and the lives they could have saved instead have become pawns in a deliberate political power play.

In 2001, US officials threatened to use their influence to stop previously approved IDB funding unless Haiti’s majority political party submitted to political demands to accept a particular apportionment of seats in a Haitian electoral oversight body. Soon after, at the behest of the US, instead of disbursing the loans as planned, the IDB and its members took the unprecedented step of implicitly adding conditions to require political action by Haiti before the funds would be released. These actions violated the IDB’s own charter, which strictly prohibits the Bank and its members from interfering in the internal political affairs of member states.

Internal emails reveal that a US legal counselor inside the IDB proposed to the US Treasury Department that, though the loans faced no legitimate technical obstacles, the US could effectively block them by “slowing” the process. Indeed, by requesting further review of the loans, Haiti would have to make scheduled payments before the funds were even disbursed. “While this is not a ‘bullet-proof’ way to stop IDB disbursements,” the counsellor wrote, “it certainly will put a few more large rocks in the road.”

In 2001, then-US Ambassador to Haiti Dean Curran publicly and explicitly linked the withholding of IDB loans to the demand that Haiti’s political parties reach a compromise that America wanted.

These tactics worked. Deprived of funds that had already been committed and expected, Haiti fell into arrears on money owed for loan repayment, triggering IDB policies that prevented the Bank from releasing loans. In subsequent years, the US employed additional delaying tactics, working with the IDB to move the goal posts whenever Haiti appeared to be meeting their demands."

READ FULL ARTICLE

About the authors: Loune Viaudis Operations Director at Zanmi Lasante in Haiti and recipient of the 2002 RFK Human Rights Award. Monika Kalra Varmais Director of the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Center for Human Rights.

Update 08.31.08:
I understand the outrage over the use of "voodoo" in the article title (America's Voodoo Human Rights Policy in Haiti). I have taken the term out of my post. I apologize to anyone offended by its use. I understand how insulting the connotation may be. I saw that it jibed with a term that Bush Sr. used to describe Reagan's economic policies. However, we cannot lose sight of the painful and shameful fact that this article was published by an Egyptian news outlet half a world away. No major US news outlet has told the truth about the US involvement in Haiti and it remains to be seen if they ever will.

Barackmeter to November Elections

Taking the reigns of the Democratic party. Barack Obama has impressed many with his implementation of the "no lobbyist" money rule for the DNC. He has also been praised for aligning with Howard Dean's vision of a 50 states strategy for winning the November election. Finally, many see his backing of Joe Lieberman against the wall during a Senate vote for an impromptu tete-a-tete as a show of leadership talent a la LBJ.

Undoubtedly, Barack Obama has political talent, but only time will tell whether he is a political genius as some have suggested. I reserve judgment. I am particularly disturbed by his pandering to the Israeli lobby (Jerusalem will remain the capital of the Israeli state -- from his address to AIPAC last week; a real blunder and step in the wrong direction, away from mediation to authoritarianisms).

Continuing the US foreign policy of Israel = US proxy in the Middle East is disastrous. The US cannot be an honest broker of peace between Palestinians and Israelis when its policy is to back whatever Israel does -- making the US hated and feared as a hypocrite and a warmonger.

Many have their political barometers poised and predict a win for the Democratic candidate...

"In an article last week on University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Web site, Abramowitz declared that “it appears very likely that the Republican Party is dealing with the dreaded 'triple whammy' in 2008: an unpopular president, a weak economy and a second-term election.”

Abramowitz has tracked the effect of those variables on the last 15 presidential elections and found that they accurately predicted the popular-vote outcome in 14 and came close in the 15th.

...The Abramowitz barometer is a shortcut variation on American University professor Allan Lichtman's famed “13 Keys to the Presidency,” which adds such factors as wars, candidate charisma, scandal and the incumbent party's performance in off-year elections to the economy and incumbency.

When Lichtman published the latest edition of his book early this year, he flatly predicted that “the Democratic candidate will capture the White House in 2008 no matter the choice of a nominee."
McCain needs vision to beat Obama
by Morton Kondracke

Maybe John McCain is alarmed by such predictions. Senator McCain used the word change 33 time in his speech introducing his campaign's new slogan -- "change we need right now." In his attempt to co-opt Obama's message "change we can believe in" McCain is hoping to gain some Obama-mentum for the upcoming November election.

An insider produces a book describing "high incompetency and low deceit in the White House"... that sounds like a description of Scott McClellan's book "What Happened..." but it's not. It was a book (IN THE LAND OF THE MAGIC ASTERISK) written about the Reagan presidency by Reagan's former budget director David A. Stockman; reviewed by Michael Kinsley in the New York Times in 1986. Reagan advocated "small" government via budget cuts and tax cuts and this refrain is oft repeated by the Republicans.

John McCain is not deterred by the Reagan presidency incurring a huge national debt using just such a formula as he has proposed or by the Bush administration having surpassed all other administrations combined in the amount of debt owed by the US government. He's voted with Bush 95% of the time.

John McCain's eyes glaze over when he discusses the economy (he knows nothing about it, he's admitted -- the so-called "straight shooter, shot himself in the foot on that one!). He's no genius and his tax plan is wrong for the US economy.

Why don't the Republicans ever learn from history? Didn't they learn from the hurricane Katrina ineptitude and embarrassment? The US needs to invest in its public infrastructures to avoid such disasters happening to levees, roads, bridges, highways, schools, etc.

There's ample proof that McCain's plan to reduce the size of government to the infamous size "where we can drown it in a bathtub" is ill advised and delusional. There is no merit to his "...corporate giveaways and phony freezes and scrubs, McCain's tax agenda undermines his core political appeal" (from McCain's Delusional Tax Plan by Robert Gordon and James Kvaal).

No matter what barometer the political pundits use to gauge the political winds, it is still possible that John McCain will be our next president. I was shocked when Reagan was elected. I will be mildly amused when and if McCain is. For many reasons, but chiefly because the American "electorate" is predictably ill-informed.